4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 32

New Orleans Saints 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(5:21) 19-B.Grupe 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.54 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 32, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 42, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT +0.24 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model