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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 6

New Orleans Saints 24 – Jacksonville Jaguars 31

What Actually Happened

(:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short left to 12-C.Olave (30-M.Brown).

The Three Options

GO +2.41 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.77 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 6, worth +0.13 EP
KICK +2.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.80 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.16 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.34 EP