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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 47

Jacksonville Jaguars 24 – New Orleans Saints 16

What Actually Happened

(7:35) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne left guard to NO 47 for no gain (93-N.Shepherd).

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.74 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 47, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -0.64 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 13, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model