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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 88

New Orleans Saints 16 – Jacksonville Jaguars 24

What Actually Happened

(10:39) 39-L.Hedley punts 62 yards to JAX 26, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-28-L.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.90 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 88, worth -5.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.55 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 46, worth -2.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP