4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 61

Jacksonville Jaguars 24 – New Orleans Saints 16

What Actually Happened

(11:37) 9-L.Cooke punts 54 yards to NO 7, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-20-D.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.49 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 61, worth -3.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 20, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model