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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 23

New Orleans Saints 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

What Actually Happened

(9:53) 19-B.Grupe 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.20 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 23, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 33, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model