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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
New Orleans Saints
4th & 1 at the 52
New Orleans Saints 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17
What Actually Happened
(12:47) 41-A.Kamara left guard to JAX 35 for 17 yards (30-M.Brown).
The Three Options
GO
+1.15 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.94 EP
- 31% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 52, worth -2.88 EP
KICK
-1.30 EP
- 31% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
- 69% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT
-0.48 EP
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 15, worth -0.48 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
