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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 25

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – New Orleans Saints 6

What Actually Happened

(:36) 10-B.McManus 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.74 EP
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +3.83 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 35, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model