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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 46

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – New Orleans Saints 6

What Actually Happened

(1:33) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke pass short left to 15-T.Jones to NO 33 for 13 yards (27-I.Yiadom, 31-J.Howden).

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.85 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 46, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -0.63 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 13, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model