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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 17

New Orleans Saints 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 19-B.Grupe 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.07 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 17, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 27, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model