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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 46

New Orleans Saints 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(7:24) 39-L.Hedley punts 28 yards to JAX 18, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.21 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 46, worth -2.44 EP
KICK -0.61 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 13, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP