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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 55

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(9:53) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to NO 13, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.85 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 55, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 16, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model