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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 12 at the 51

Green Bay Packers 0 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(2:40) 19-D.Whelan punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.19 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 51, worth -3.02 EP
KICK -1.83 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model