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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 67

Green Bay Packers 0 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(6:48) 19-D.Whelan punts 59 yards to DEN 8, Center-42-M.Orzech. 19-M.Mims to DEN 19 for 11 yards (55-K.Enagbare).

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.19 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 67, worth -3.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 25, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP