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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 73

Denver Broncos 19 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(:06) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep right.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +0.07 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 73, worth -1.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 31, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.78 EP