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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 29

Green Bay Packers 10 – Denver Broncos 16

What Actually Happened

(11:52) 10-J.Love pass short right to 89-B.Sims to DEN 27 for 2 yards (2-P.Surtain).

The Three Options

GO +2.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.17 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 29, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
  • 79% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 39, worth -1.82 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model