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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 67

Denver Broncos 16 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to GB 22, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 25-K.Nixon to GB 24 for 2 yards (32-D.Turner-Yell).

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.46 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 25, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP