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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 11

Green Bay Packers 0 – Denver Broncos 9

What Actually Happened

(10:28) 17-A.Carlson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +2.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.39 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 22, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP