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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 25

Green Bay Packers 0 – Denver Broncos 6

What Actually Happened

(:46) 17-A.Carlson 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.07 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 35, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model