Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 62

Denver Broncos 6 – Green Bay Packers 0

(6:41) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to GB 13, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 25-K.Nixon to GB 28 for 15 yards (45-N.Adkins; 39-D.Washington).

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.70 EP
63% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model