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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 75

Cleveland Browns 7 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(3:04) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 69 yards to IND 6, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 6-I.McKenzie to IND 27 for 21 yards (47-C.Hughlett; 43-M.Diabate).

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.15 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 75, worth -4.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 32, worth -1.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model