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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 93

Cleveland Browns 7 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(7:05) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 58 yards to IND 35, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 6-I.McKenzie to IND 43 for 8 yards (40-M.Adams, 26-R.McLeod).

The Three Options

GO -3.27 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth -0.21 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 93, worth -5.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -3.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 51, worth -3.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model