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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 1

Cleveland Browns 33 – Indianapolis Colts 38

What Actually Happened

(:19) 66-J.Hudson and 53-N.Harris reported in as eligible. 27-K.Hunt up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +4.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.92 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 1, worth +0.17 EP
KICK +2.91 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.94 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.05 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model