Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 93

Indianapolis Colts 31 – Cleveland Browns 30

(9:09) 8-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to CLE 43, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones.

The Three Options

GO -2.68 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.42 EP
53% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 93, worth -5.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model