4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 36

Cleveland Browns 27 – Indianapolis Colts 21

What Actually Happened

(9:28) 7-D.Hopkins 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.85 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 36, worth -2.01 EP
KICK +0.28 EP
What Happened
  • 66% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 46, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model