Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 19 at the 89

Cleveland Browns 27 – Indianapolis Colts 21

What Actually Happened

(11:57) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 56 yards to IND 33, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 6-I.McKenzie to IND 33 for no gain (20-P.Strong). FUMBLES (20-P.Strong), and recovers at IND 33.

The Three Options

GO -3.46 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.28 EP
74% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 89, worth -5.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model