Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 68

Indianapolis Colts 21 – Cleveland Browns 27

(13:32) 8-R.Sanchez punts 54 yards to CLE 14, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 20 for 6 yards (43-T.Denbow).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.37 EP
64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 68, worth -3.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model