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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 17 at the 18

Buffalo Bills 0 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(14:52) 2-T.Bass 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.36 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 18, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 28, worth -1.59 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model