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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 8

Buffalo Bills 17 – New England Patriots 22

What Actually Happened

(2:50) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 86-D.Kincaid to NE 4 for 4 yards (29-J.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO +2.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.10 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 8, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.62 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model