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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 6

New England Patriots 10 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(7:39) 37-C.Ryland 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +2.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.18 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 6, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP