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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 84

Buffalo Bills 3 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(10:36) 8-S.Martin punts 55 yards to NE 29, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 81-D.Douglas to BUF 46 for 25 yards (26-T.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.97 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 84, worth -4.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.46 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 42, worth -2.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model