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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 23

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(2:08) 6-Y.Koo 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.45 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP