Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 68

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(13:45) 13-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to TB 20, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins. PENALTY on TB-30-D.Delaney, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.10 EP
62% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 68, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model