4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 6

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(5:17) 4-C.McLaughlin 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +2.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.05 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 6, worth +0.00 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model