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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 5

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(11:54) 6-Y.Koo 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.54 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 5, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP