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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 14 at the 66

Washington Commanders 3 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(:11) 5-T.Way punts 44 yards to ATL 22, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 21-M.Hughes to ATL 23 for 1 yard (26-T.Castro-Fields, 20-J.Martin).

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.54 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 66, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 24, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model