4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 15 at the 70

Washington Commanders 24 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(4:39) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to ATL 19, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 21-M.Hughes.

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.20 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 70, worth -3.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 28, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model