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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 20 at the 85

Washington Commanders 17 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(:58) 5-T.Way punts 41 yards to ATL 44, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 21-M.Hughes to WAS 48 for 8 yards (32-T.Burgess; 20-J.Martin).

The Three Options

GO -3.03 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.19 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 85, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 43, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model