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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 43

Washington Commanders 10 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(7:33) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell left tackle to ATL 39 for 4 yards (55-K.Elliss).

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.05 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 43, worth -2.49 EP
KICK -0.66 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model