Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 62

New York Giants 9 – Buffalo Bills 14

(1:52) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass incomplete deep left to 86-D.Slayton (47-C.Benford).

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP

What Happened

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.69 EP
65% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 62, worth -2.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model