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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 11 at the 44

New York Giants 6 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(9:59) 6-J.Gillan punts 33 yards to BUF 11, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.78 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 44, worth -2.40 EP
KICK -0.79 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model