Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 11 at the 86

New York Giants 3 – Buffalo Bills 0

(11:48) 6-J.Gillan punts 51 yards to BUF 35, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

The Three Options

GO -3.14 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.94 EP
67% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 86, worth -5.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model