Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 12 at the 92

New York Giants 3 – Buffalo Bills 0

(15:00) 6-J.Gillan punts 64 yards to BUF 28, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 11-D.Harty to BUF 31 for 3 yards (24-D.Belton; 44-N.McCloud).

The Three Options

GO -3.60 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.45 EP
68% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 92, worth -5.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model