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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 52

Houston Texans 20 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(2:48) 11-C.Johnston punts 37 yards to NO 15, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.32 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 52, worth -1.85 EP
KICK -0.60 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 15, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model