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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 15

New Orleans Saints 13 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(4:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 41-A.Kamara to HOU 13 for 2 yards (0-S.Griffin, 53-B.Cashman).

The Three Options

GO +1.84 EP
What Happened
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.94 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 15, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 25, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model