Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 77

Houston Texans 20 – New Orleans Saints 13

(:49) 11-C.Johnston punts 46 yards to NO 31, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.72 EP
70% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 77, worth -4.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model