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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 4

Houston Texans 17 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(7:03) 15-K.Fairbairn 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +2.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.19 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 4, worth +0.44 EP
KICK +2.17 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.51 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP