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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 70

Houston Texans 17 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(10:08) 11-C.Johnston punts 63 yards to NO 7, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-37-D.Ross.

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.15 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 70, worth -3.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 28, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model