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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 19 at the 70

New Orleans Saints 10 – Houston Texans 17

What Actually Happened

(11:40) 39-L.Hedley punts 41 yards to HOU 29, Center-49-Z.Wood. 2-R.Woods to HOU 29 for no gain (27-I.Yiadom).

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.76 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 70, worth -4.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 28, worth -1.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model