Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 77

New Orleans Saints 7 – Houston Texans 10

(9:13) 39-L.Hedley punts 42 yards to HOU 35, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.24 EP
58% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 77, worth -4.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model